A Study on the Determining the Best Probability Distribution for the Annual Average Amount of Water Entering The Porsuk Dam

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Authors

  • Arzu ALTIN YAVUZ
  • Barış ERGUL

Keywords:

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, Porsuk dam, Prediction, Probability distribution, Water

Abstract

Available water resources should be assessed in an efficient manner for the effective use of water resources. Dams have an important place
in the solution of water problems in general. We can make use of water resources plan according to the amount of water coming to the dams.
That’s why, prediction of future values of random variables such as precipitation, water flow, water coming to the dam has great importance. In
this study, some probability distributions have been used for modeling the average annual amount of water coming in to Eskisehir Porsuk dam.
For this purpose, the best fit of 33-years of data to the Normal, Lognormal, Logistic, Gamma and Weibull distributions have been tested with the
Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test. Test results showed that the annual average amount of water coming in to Porsuk dam best fits to the two-parameter
Weibull distribution. Then, the shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution, were determined by using the least squares, maximum likelihood
and the method of moments. According to the criteria of mean square error, the most effective method was found to be the method of moments for
the best estimates of the parameters.

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Published

2019-05-31

How to Cite

YAVUZ, A. A., & ERGUL, B. (2019). A Study on the Determining the Best Probability Distribution for the Annual Average Amount of Water Entering The Porsuk Dam. International Journal of Natural and Engineering Sciences, 4(3), 01–06. Retrieved from https://www.ijnes.org/index.php/ijnes/article/view/13

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Articles